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What kind of winter does Mother Nature have in store for us this year?
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By Craig Moorhead
Special for the Argus
The National Weather Service says that currently an El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This may cause warmer than average winter temperatures in our area. Meteorologist Todd Shea, stationed at the NWS office in La Crosse, commented recently on the situation.
Will we enjoy a mild winter this year?
“The majority of El Niño winters tend to be warmer across the north central states,” Shea began. “That’s the outlook for temperatures. The precipitation outlook…there isn’t as strong a signal for more or less snow, so it’s what we call equal chances, or near normal precipitation.
“An El Niño pattern, when it takes control, generally brings more activity along the west coast, and then the storm tracks tend to be a little bit farther south. That’s why they’re forecasting it to be a little bit wetter down there. That would also lead to cooler conditions for them, because they’d have more clouds, rainy days, that sort of thing.”
What about snow? Would warmer than average temperatures mean less heavy snow falls and more ice and mixed precipitation for us?
“It could. There isn’t any evidence that we’ve had more snow during these situations, but I think you’re on to something there. If it does end up to be a little milder when more of the storms are coming through, there could be more mixed precipitation, versus the last few years, where we ended up with a snow pack early in the season. That tends to keep temperatures down and more of the storms just end up dumping snow. If the ground ends up a little more bare and we end up with more days in the 40’s, then more of these passing storm systems could give us a little more mixed precipitation.”
The NWS says that warmer than normal water temperatures circulate in the equatorial Pacific during an El Nino. During a condition called La Niña, cooler than normal waters are found in the area.
Did we have a La Niña the year before last, when temperatures were cooler than normal here?
“I think a little bit. Last year however, we were in a more neutral situation. This is a kind of an oscillation that takes place,” Shea observed.
Is this year’s El Niño a strong one?
“Not that I have heard. The last thing I read said it was kind of leveling off already. It might actually be retreating a little bit.
“Even with an El Niño, there’s still going to be those winter storms, there’s still going to be occasional cold pushes. There are always exceptions to the rule. There are some El Niño winters where temperatures have been far below normal. I think about 17 percent of them. A majority of them however, have tended to keep things a little milder.”
Do you have any other news for our readers?
“Just yesterday I did put a news story on our NWS La Crosse website about winter weather awareness week. It’s coming up Nov. 9-13. That’s just kind of a time frame where we start pushing the ideas of winter hazard safety and kind of remind people to be prepared, to check ahead before they travel, things like that,” Shea concluded.
Shea’s latest article can be found at www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/. Click in the “Winter Weather Awareness-2009” line.
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